The automated Quantcha Trade Ideas Service has detected a promising Bear Call Spread trade opportunity for PROGRESSIVE (PGR) for the 18-May-2018 expiration period. You can analyze the opportunity in depth over at the Quantcha Options Search Engine.
PGR was recently trading at $54.78 and has an implied volatility of 15.13% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for PGR expiring on 18-May-2018, there is a 46.44% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $44.85-$54.82 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 38.89%.
Price target: Zacks Research has updated their six-month price target for PGR to $49.83. This price target is a consensus price created from the price targets published by 12 participating analysts whose targets ranged from $40.00 to $65.00.
Mean recommendation: Zacks normalizes analyst recommendations to a 1-5 scale where 1 indicates a strong buy. Their mean recommendation for PGR has been updated to 2.44, which indicates a buy consensus from analysts. Sentiment has moved from 2.36 to 2.44 to 2.44 over the past three months.
Trade approach: The difference between the current price for PGR and the mean price target is $4.28, which represents a 9.03% move (19.16% annualized). Since the 180-day implied volatility for PGR is 17.54%, a bearish strategy could prove effective if the price target ultimately turns out to be accurate.
Upside potential: Using this bearish strategy, the trade would be profitable if PROGRESSIVE closed at or below $56.40 on 18-May-2018. Based on our analysis, there is a 60.58% likelihood of this return.
Downside risk: As with any options trade, there is a substantial downside risk where you may lose most or all of your investment.
To analyze this trade in depth, please visit the Quantcha Options Search Engine.
This is an automated post generated based on a market analysis of delayed data at 12/7/2017 1:00:33 PM ET. The analysis does not include brokerage fees or commissions and is not investment advice.