Synthetic Long Discount Alert: ARES CAPITAL $ARCC trading at a 11.96% discount for the 17-Jan-2020 expiration

The automated Quantcha Trade Ideas Service has detected a promising Synthetic Long Stock trade opportunity for ARES CAPITAL (ARCC) for the 17-Jan-2020 expiration period. You can analyze the opportunity in depth over at the Quantcha Options Search Engine.

ARCC was recently trading at $16.02 and has an implied volatility of 5.69% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for ARCC expiring on 17-Jan-2020, there is a 68.27% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $12.39-$22.01 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 73.60%.

Upside potential: This synthetic long position offers the same potential benefits and liabilities as a long stock position, but at a discount due to the significant premium at-the-money puts are trading at over calls. In this case, the put position is opened at a strike of $17.00, which is already $0.98 in-the-money. However, its sale more than offsets this moneyness and the cost of the long call that the trade results in a net credit of of $2.90 per share. The final position can be considered as having a discount of $1.92 per share over the underlying price of $16.02 for a 11.96% total.

Downside risk: This discount is generally a sign of the stock facing considerable short pressure, and may indicate that the stock has become hard to borrow. However, if you have a long view of the underlying over this period, it could be a good opportunity to benefit from the upside at a major discount.

To analyze this trade in depth, please visit the Quantcha Options Search Engine.

This is an automated post generated based on a market analysis of delayed data at 1/12/2018 2:16:58 PM ET. The analysis does not include brokerage fees or commissions and is not investment advice.