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Quantchabot has detected a promising Synthetic Long Stock trade opportunity for ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNER (ARLP) for the 21-Jan-2022 expiration period. You can analyze the opportunity in depth over at the Quantcha Options Search Engine.
ARLP was recently trading at $11.49 and has an implied volatility of 23.85% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for ARLP expiring on 21-Jan-2022, there is a 68.27% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $4.67-$30.73 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 128.11%.
Upside potential: This synthetic long position offers the same potential benefits and liabilities as a long stock position, but at a discount due to the significant premium at-the-money puts are trading at over calls. In this case, the put position is opened at a strike of $12.50, which is already $1.01 in-the-money. However, its sale more than offsets this moneyness and the cost of the long call that the trade results in a net credit of of $4.05 per share. The final position can be considered as having a discount of $3.04 per share over the underlying price of $11.49 for a 26.48% total.
Downside risk: This discount is generally a sign of the stock facing considerable short pressure, and may indicate that the stock has become hard to borrow. However, if you have a long view of the underlying over this period, it could be a good opportunity to benefit from the upside at a major discount.
To analyze this trade in depth, please visit the Quantcha Options Search Engine.
This is an automated post generated based on a market analysis of delayed data at 11/22/2019 10:34:37 AM ET. The analysis does not include brokerage fees or commissions and is not investment advice.