Category Archives: Trade Ideas

Big Gainer Alert: Trading today’s 8.4% move in HESS $HES

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Quantchabot has detected a promising Long Risk Reversal trade opportunity for HESS (HES) for the 17-Apr-2020 expiration period. You can analyze the opportunity in depth over at the Quantcha Options Search Engine.

HES was recently trading at $34.61 and has an implied volatility of 99.07% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for HES expiring on 17-Apr-2020, there is a 34.14% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $34.63-$43.42 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 42.04%.

Big 8.39% Change: After closing the last trading session at $31.93, HESS opened today at $33.29 and has reached a high of $34.76.

Trade approach: A movement as big as 8.39% is a significantly bullish indicator, so this trade is designed to be profitable if HES maintains its current direction and does not revert back to pricing on the bearish side of $34.61 on 17-Apr-2020. If possible, the trade has been padded such that slight movement against the trade would still return a profit.

Upside potential: Using this bullish strategy, the trade would be profitable if HESS closes at or above $33.69 on 17-Apr-2020. Based on our risk-neutral analysis, there is a 54.82% likelihood of this return.

Downside risk: As with any options trade, there is a substantial downside risk where you may lose most or all of your investment.

To analyze this trade in depth, please visit the Quantcha Options Search Engine.

Synthetic Long Discount Alert: REVLON $REV trading at a 11.01% discount for the 20-Nov-2020 expiration

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Quantchabot has detected a promising Synthetic Long Stock trade opportunity for REVLON (REV) for the 20-Nov-2020 expiration period. You can analyze the opportunity in depth over at the Quantcha Options Search Engine.

REV was recently trading at $11.34 and has an implied volatility of 83.37% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for REV expiring on 20-Nov-2020, there is a 68.27% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $4.31-$30.21 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 57.09%.

Upside potential: This synthetic long position offers the same potential benefits and liabilities as a long stock position, but at a discount due to the significant premium at-the-money puts are trading at over calls. In this case, the put position is opened at a strike of $12.50, which is already $1.16 in-the-money. However, its sale more than offsets this moneyness and the cost of the long call that the trade results in a net credit of of $2.60 per share. The final position can be considered as having a discount of $1.44 per share over the underlying price of $11.34 for a 12.68% total.

Downside risk: This discount is generally a sign of the stock facing considerable short pressure, and may indicate that the stock has become hard to borrow. However, if you have a long view of the underlying over this period, it could be a good opportunity to benefit from the upside at a major discount.

To analyze this trade in depth, please visit the Quantcha Options Search Engine.

52-Week High Alert: Trading today’s movement in QUIDEL $QDEL

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Quantchabot has detected a promising Bull Call Spread trade opportunity for QUIDEL (QDEL) for the 17-Apr-2020 expiration period. You can analyze the opportunity in depth over at the Quantcha Options Search Engine.

QDEL was recently trading at $101.68 and has an implied volatility of 110.73% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for QDEL expiring on 17-Apr-2020, there is a 34.14% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $101.72-$129.63 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 70.22%.

52 week high: QUIDEL recently reached a new 52-week high at $106.56. QDEL had traded in the range $52.49-$100.42 over the past year.

Trade approach: Reaching a new 52-week high is a bullish indicator, so this trade is designed to be profitable if QDEL maintains its current direction and does not revert back to pricing on the bearish side of $101.68 on 17-Apr-2020. If possible, the trade has been padded such that slight movement against the trade would still return a profit.

Upside potential: Using this bullish strategy, the trade would be profitable if QUIDEL closes at or above $100.80 on 17-Apr-2020. Based on our risk-neutral analysis, there is a 51.50% likelihood of this return.

Downside risk: As with any options trade, there is a substantial downside risk where you may lose most or all of your investment.

To analyze this trade in depth, please visit the Quantcha Options Search Engine.

Synthetic Long Discount Alert: TILRAY INC. CLASS 2 COMMON STOCK $TLRY trading at a 12.64% discount for the 15-Jan-2021 expiration

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Quantchabot has detected a promising Synthetic Long Stock trade opportunity for TILRAY INC. CLASS 2 COMMON STOCK (TLRY) for the 15-Jan-2021 expiration period. You can analyze the opportunity in depth over at the Quantcha Options Search Engine.

TLRY was recently trading at $7.56 and has an implied volatility of 92.94% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for TLRY expiring on 15-Jan-2021, there is a 68.27% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $2.19-$26.56 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 65.16%.

Upside potential: This synthetic long position offers the same potential benefits and liabilities as a long stock position, but at a discount due to the significant premium at-the-money puts are trading at over calls. In this case, the long call position is opened at a strike of $7.50, which is already $0.06 in the money. An out-of-the-money put at the same strike is sold to finance the call, resulting in a net credit of $0.90 per share. The final position can be considered as having a discount of $0.96 per share over the underlying price of $7.56 for a 12.69% total.

Downside risk: This discount is generally a sign of the stock facing considerable short pressure, and may indicate that the stock has become hard to borrow. However, if you have a long view of the underlying over this period, it could be a good opportunity to benefit from the upside at a major discount.

To analyze this trade in depth, please visit the Quantcha Options Search Engine.

Big Gainer Alert: Trading today’s 7.8% move in OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM $OXY

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Quantchabot has detected a promising Long Risk Reversal trade opportunity for OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM (OXY) for the 24-Apr-2020 expiration period. You can analyze the opportunity in depth over at the Quantcha Options Search Engine.

OXY was recently trading at $11.87 and has an implied volatility of 162.61% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for OXY expiring on 24-Apr-2020, there is a 34.14% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $11.88-$18.42 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 86.87%.

Big 7.81% Change: After closing the last trading session at $11.01, OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM opened today at $11.52 and has reached a high of $11.89.

Trade approach: A movement as big as 7.81% is a significantly bullish indicator, so this trade is designed to be profitable if OXY maintains its current direction and does not revert back to pricing on the bearish side of $11.87 on 24-Apr-2020. If possible, the trade has been padded such that slight movement against the trade would still return a profit.

Upside potential: Using this bullish strategy, the trade would be profitable if OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM closes at or above $11.57 on 24-Apr-2020. Based on our risk-neutral analysis, there is a 52.39% likelihood of this return.

Downside risk: As with any options trade, there is a substantial downside risk where you may lose most or all of your investment.

To analyze this trade in depth, please visit the Quantcha Options Search Engine.

Synthetic Long Discount Alert: CO-DIAGNOSTICS INC. COMMON STOCK $CODX trading at a 10.97% discount for the 20-Nov-2020 expiration

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Quantchabot has detected a promising Synthetic Long Stock trade opportunity for CO-DIAGNOSTICS INC. COMMON STOCK (CODX) for the 20-Nov-2020 expiration period. You can analyze the opportunity in depth over at the Quantcha Options Search Engine.

CODX was recently trading at $7.74 and has an implied volatility of 172.36% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for CODX expiring on 20-Nov-2020, there is a 68.27% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $1.34-$45.15 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 78.37%.

Upside potential: This synthetic long position offers the same potential benefits and liabilities as a long stock position, but at a discount due to the significant premium at-the-money puts are trading at over calls. In this case, the put position is opened at a strike of $8.00, which is already $0.27 in-the-money. However, its sale more than offsets this moneyness and the cost of the long call that the trade results in a net credit of of $1.10 per share. The final position can be considered as having a discount of $0.84 per share over the underlying price of $7.74 for a 10.80% total.

Downside risk: This discount is generally a sign of the stock facing considerable short pressure, and may indicate that the stock has become hard to borrow. However, if you have a long view of the underlying over this period, it could be a good opportunity to benefit from the upside at a major discount.

To analyze this trade in depth, please visit the Quantcha Options Search Engine.

52-Week Low Alert: Trading today’s movement in AMARIN $AMRN

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Quantchabot has detected a promising Covered Put trade opportunity for AMARIN (AMRN) for the 24-Apr-2020 expiration period. You can analyze the opportunity in depth over at the Quantcha Options Search Engine.

AMRN was recently trading at $4.10 and has an implied volatility of 144.52% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for AMRN expiring on 24-Apr-2020, there is a 34.14% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $2.82-$4.10 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 66.67%.

52 week low: AMARIN recently reached a new 52-week low at $4.00. AMRN had traded in the range $8.58-$26.12 over the past year.

Trade approach: Reaching a new 52-week low is a bearish indicator, so this trade is designed to be profitable if AMRN maintains its current direction and does not revert back to pricing on the bullish side of $4.10 on 24-Apr-2020. If possible, the trade has been padded such that slight movement against the trade would still return a profit.

Upside potential: Using this bearish strategy, the trade would be profitable if AMARIN closes at or below $6.06 on 24-Apr-2020. Based on our risk-neutral analysis, there is a 84.98% likelihood of this return.

Downside risk: As with any options trade, there is a substantial downside risk where you may lose most or all of your investment.

To analyze this trade in depth, please visit the Quantcha Options Search Engine.

Big Gainer Alert: Trading today’s 15.5% move in CANADIAN NATURAL $CNQ

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Quantchabot has detected a promising Long Risk Reversal trade opportunity for CANADIAN NATURAL (CNQ) for the 17-Apr-2020 expiration period. You can analyze the opportunity in depth over at the Quantcha Options Search Engine.

CNQ was recently trading at $12.85 and has an implied volatility of 109.07% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for CNQ expiring on 17-Apr-2020, there is a 34.14% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $12.86-$16.31 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 42.71%.

Big 15.45% Change: After closing the last trading session at $11.13, CANADIAN NATURAL opened today at $11.49 and has reached a high of $13.34.

Trade approach: A movement as big as 15.45% is a significantly bullish indicator, so this trade is designed to be profitable if CNQ maintains its current direction and does not revert back to pricing on the bearish side of $12.85 on 17-Apr-2020. If possible, the trade has been padded such that slight movement against the trade would still return a profit.

Upside potential: Using this bullish strategy, the trade would be profitable if CANADIAN NATURAL closes at or above $12.55 on 17-Apr-2020. Based on our risk-neutral analysis, there is a 54.04% likelihood of this return.

Downside risk: As with any options trade, there is a substantial downside risk where you may lose most or all of your investment.

To analyze this trade in depth, please visit the Quantcha Options Search Engine.

StockTwits Trending Alert: Trading recent interest in CLOUDFLARE INC $NET

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Quantchabot has detected a promising Bull Call Spread trade opportunity for CLOUDFLARE INC (NET) for the 17-Apr-2020 expiration period. You can analyze the opportunity in depth over at the Quantcha Options Search Engine.

NET was recently trading at $25.77 and has an implied volatility of 79.35% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for NET expiring on 17-Apr-2020, there is a 34.20% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $25.78-$31.06 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 70.55%.

Trending on StockTwits: StockTwits® is a financial communications platform for the financial and investing community. On their site, CLOUDFLARE INC was recently trending, indicating that breaking news and/or market activity has significantly impacted sentiment toward the stock. This movement can be interpretted as a sign of more near-term price movement for the underlying.

Trade approach: The recent sentiment change in NET on StockTwits appears to be moderately positive, indicating that the stock is likely to follow in that direction for investors trading on sentiment. As a result, a bullish strategy could prove effective if the sentiment ultimately turns out to drive trading.

Upside potential: Using this bullish strategy, the trade would be profitable if CLOUDFLARE INC closed at or above $25.75 on 17-Apr-2020. Based on our analysis, there is a 50.27% likelihood of this return.

Downside risk: As with any options trade, there is a substantial downside risk where you may lose most or all of your investment.

To analyze this trade in depth, please visit the Quantcha Options Search Engine.

StockTwits Trending Alert: Trading recent interest in CONAGRA BRANDS INC $CAG

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Quantchabot has detected a promising Bull Call Spread trade opportunity for CONAGRA BRANDS INC (CAG) for the 9-Apr-2020 expiration period. You can analyze the opportunity in depth over at the Quantcha Options Search Engine.

CAG was recently trading at $29.69 and has an implied volatility of 69.06% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for CAG expiring on 9-Apr-2020, there is a 34.23% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $29.69-$33.10 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 20.46%.

Trending on StockTwits: StockTwits® is a financial communications platform for the financial and investing community. On their site, CONAGRA BRANDS INC was recently trending, indicating that breaking news and/or market activity has significantly impacted sentiment toward the stock. This movement can be interpretted as a sign of more near-term price movement for the underlying.

Trade approach: The recent sentiment change in CAG on StockTwits appears to be significantly positive, indicating that the stock is likely to follow in that direction for investors trading on sentiment. As a result, a bullish strategy could prove effective if the sentiment ultimately turns out to drive trading.

Upside potential: Using this bullish strategy, the trade would be profitable if CONAGRA BRANDS INC closed at or above $29.55 on 9-Apr-2020. Based on our analysis, there is a 51.83% likelihood of this return.

Downside risk: As with any options trade, there is a substantial downside risk where you may lose most or all of your investment.

To analyze this trade in depth, please visit the Quantcha Options Search Engine.