Synthetic Long Discount Alert: ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNER $ARLP trading at a 15.92% discount for the 15-Jan-2021 expiration

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Quantchabot has detected a promising Synthetic Long Stock trade opportunity for ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNER (ARLP) for the 15-Jan-2021 expiration period. You can analyze the opportunity in depth over at the Quantcha Options Search Engine.

ARLP was recently trading at $11.70 and has an implied volatility of 24.56% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for ARLP expiring on 15-Jan-2021, there is a 68.27% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $7.27-$19.59 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 76.01%.

Upside potential: This synthetic long position offers the same potential benefits and liabilities as a long stock position, but at a discount due to the significant premium at-the-money puts are trading at over calls. In this case, the put position is opened at a strike of $12.50, which is already $0.80 in-the-money. However, its sale more than offsets this moneyness and the cost of the long call that the trade results in a net credit of of $2.65 per share. The final position can be considered as having a discount of $1.85 per share over the underlying price of $11.70 for a 15.81% total.

Downside risk: This discount is generally a sign of the stock facing considerable short pressure, and may indicate that the stock has become hard to borrow. However, if you have a long view of the underlying over this period, it could be a good opportunity to benefit from the upside at a major discount.

To analyze this trade in depth, please visit the Quantcha Options Search Engine.