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Quantchabot has detected a promising Bear Call Spread trade opportunity for DIREXION DAILY 20+ YR TRSY BUL (TMF) for the 21-Aug-2020 expiration period. You can analyze the opportunity in depth over at the Quantcha Options Search Engine.
TMF was recently trading at $46.00 and has an implied volatility of 40.53% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for TMF expiring on 21-Aug-2020, there is a 34.10% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $41.75-$46.00 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 54.81%.
Trending on StockTwits: StockTwits® is a financial communications platform for the financial and investing community. On their site, DIREXION DAILY 20+ YR TRSY BUL was recently trending, indicating that breaking news and/or market activity has significantly impacted sentiment toward the stock. This movement can be interpretted as a sign of more near-term price movement for the underlying.
Trade approach: The recent sentiment change in TMF on StockTwits appears to be significantly negative, indicating that the stock is likely to follow in that direction for investors trading on sentiment. As a result, a bearish strategy could prove effective if the sentiment ultimately turns out to drive trading.
Upside potential: Using this bearish strategy, the trade would be profitable if DIREXION DAILY 20+ YR TRSY BUL closed at or below $46.15 on 21-Aug-2020. Based on our analysis, there is a 51.30% likelihood of this return.
Downside risk: As with any options trade, there is a substantial downside risk where you may lose most or all of your investment.
To analyze this trade in depth, please visit the Quantcha Options Search Engine.