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Quantchabot has detected a promising Bear Call Spread trade opportunity for ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND (TLT) for the 5-Mar-2021 expiration period. You can analyze the opportunity in depth over at the Quantcha Options Search Engine.
TLT was recently trading at $143.27 and has an implied volatility of 18.27% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for TLT expiring on 5-Mar-2021, there is a 34.09% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $138.68-$143.27 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 73.87%.
Trending on StockTwits: StockTwits® is a financial communications platform for the financial and investing community. On their site, ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND was recently trending, indicating that breaking news and/or market activity has significantly impacted sentiment toward the stock. This movement can be interpretted as a sign of more near-term price movement for the underlying.
Trade approach: The recent sentiment change in TLT on StockTwits appears to be moderately negative, indicating that the stock is likely to follow in that direction for investors trading on sentiment. As a result, a bearish strategy could prove effective if the sentiment ultimately turns out to drive trading.
Upside potential: Using this bearish strategy, the trade would be profitable if ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND closed at or below $143.39 on 5-Mar-2021. Based on our analysis, there is a 50.98% likelihood of this return.
Downside risk: As with any options trade, there is a substantial downside risk where you may lose most or all of your investment.
To analyze this trade in depth, please visit the Quantcha Options Search Engine.