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Quantchabot has detected a promising Bull Call Spread trade opportunity for ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER (AJG) for the 16-Apr-2021 expiration period. You can analyze the opportunity in depth over at the Quantcha Options Search Engine.
AJG was recently trading at $129.68 and has an implied volatility of 15.17% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for AJG expiring on 16-Apr-2021, there is a 34.14% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $129.68-$132.87 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 10.66%.
52 week high: ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER recently reached a new 52-week high at $130.19. AJG had traded in the range $73.66-$129.12 over the past year.
Trade approach: Reaching a new 52-week high is a bullish indicator, so this trade is designed to be profitable if AJG maintains its current direction and does not revert back to pricing on the bearish side of $129.68 on 16-Apr-2021. If possible, the trade has been padded such that slight movement against the trade would still return a profit.
Upside potential: Using this bullish strategy, the trade would be profitable if ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER closes at or above $129.50 on 16-Apr-2021. Based on our risk-neutral analysis, there is a 52.33% likelihood of this return.
Downside risk: As with any options trade, there is a substantial downside risk where you may lose most or all of your investment.
To analyze this trade in depth, please visit the Quantcha Options Search Engine.