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Quantchabot has detected a promising Bear Call Spread trade opportunity for FIBROGEN INC COMMON STOCK (FGEN) for the 16-Apr-2021 expiration period. You can analyze the opportunity in depth over at the Quantcha Options Search Engine.
FGEN was recently trading at $22.20 and has an implied volatility of 100.79% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for FGEN expiring on 16-Apr-2021, there is a 34.14% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $18.89-$22.21 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 35.14%.
Big -35.90% Change: After closing the last trading session at $34.64, FIBROGEN INC COMMON STOCK opened today at $23.87 and has reached a low of $21.82.
Trade approach: A movement as big as -35.90% is a significantly bearish indicator, so this trade is designed to be profitable if FGEN maintains its current direction and does not revert back to pricing on the bullish side of $22.20 on 16-Apr-2021. If possible, the trade has been padded such that slight movement against the trade would still return a profit.
Upside potential: Using this bearish strategy, the trade would be profitable if FIBROGEN INC COMMON STOCK closes at or below $23.15 on 16-Apr-2021. Based on our risk-neutral analysis, there is a 60.16% likelihood of this return.
Downside risk: As with any options trade, there is a substantial downside risk where you may lose most or all of your investment.
To analyze this trade in depth, please visit the Quantcha Options Search Engine.