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Quantchabot has detected a promising Bear Call Spread trade opportunity for MODERNA INC. COMMON STOCK (MRNA) for the 29-Oct-2021 expiration period. You can analyze the opportunity in depth over at the Quantcha Options Search Engine.
MRNA was recently trading at $415.66 and has an implied volatility of 61.53% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for MRNA expiring on 29-Oct-2021, there is a 34.13% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $333.83-$415.71 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 63.97%.
Big -7.50% Change: After closing the last trading session at $449.38, MODERNA INC. COMMON STOCK opened today at $448.00 and has reached a low of $415.00.
Trade approach: A movement as big as -7.50% is a significantly bearish indicator, so this trade is designed to be profitable if MRNA maintains its current direction and does not revert back to pricing on the bullish side of $415.66 on 29-Oct-2021. If possible, the trade has been padded such that slight movement against the trade would still return a profit.
Upside potential: Using this bearish strategy, the trade would be profitable if MODERNA INC. COMMON STOCK closes at or below $415.95 on 29-Oct-2021. Based on our risk-neutral analysis, there is a 50.11% likelihood of this return.
Downside risk: As with any options trade, there is a substantial downside risk where you may lose most or all of your investment.
To analyze this trade in depth, please visit the Quantcha Options Search Engine.