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Quantchabot has detected a promising Bear Call Spread trade opportunity for BOSTON BEER COMPANY (SAM) for the 21-Jan-2022 expiration period. You can analyze the opportunity in depth over at the Quantcha Options Search Engine.
SAM was recently trading at $454.33 and has an implied volatility of 39.25% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for SAM expiring on 21-Jan-2022, there is a 34.14% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $429.76-$454.33 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 42.28%.
Big -7.09% Change: After closing the last trading session at $488.98, BOSTON BEER COMPANY opened today at $446.49 and has reached a low of $440.87.
Trade approach: A movement as big as -7.09% is a significantly bearish indicator, so this trade is designed to be profitable if SAM maintains its current direction and does not revert back to pricing on the bullish side of $454.33 on 21-Jan-2022. If possible, the trade has been padded such that slight movement against the trade would still return a profit.
Upside potential: Using this bearish strategy, the trade would be profitable if BOSTON BEER COMPANY closes at or below $455.20 on 21-Jan-2022. Based on our risk-neutral analysis, there is a 51.37% likelihood of this return.
Downside risk: As with any options trade, there is a substantial downside risk where you may lose most or all of your investment.
To analyze this trade in depth, please visit the Quantcha Options Search Engine.