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Quantchabot has detected a promising Bear Call Spread trade opportunity for CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) for the 15-Jul-2022 expiration period. You can analyze the opportunity in depth over at the Quantcha Options Search Engine.
COP was recently trading at $98.80 and has an implied volatility of 46.76% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for COP expiring on 15-Jul-2022, there is a 34.16% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $80.48-$98.43 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 18.55%.
Big -8.26% Change: After closing the last trading session at $107.69, CONOCOPHILLIPS opened today at $105.17 and has reached a low of $98.31.
Trade approach: A movement as big as -8.26% is a significantly bearish indicator, so this trade is designed to be profitable if COP maintains its current direction and does not revert back to pricing on the bullish side of $98.80 on 15-Jul-2022. If possible, the trade has been padded such that slight movement against the trade would still return a profit.
Upside potential: Using this bearish strategy, the trade would be profitable if CONOCOPHILLIPS closes at or below $98.43 on 15-Jul-2022. Based on our risk-neutral analysis, there is a 50.00% likelihood of this return.
Downside risk: As with any options trade, there is a substantial downside risk where you may lose most or all of your investment.
To analyze this trade in depth, please visit the Quantcha Options Search Engine.