Quantchabot has detected a promising Bear Call Spread trade opportunity for MURPHY OIL (MUR) for the 15-Jul-2022 expiration period. You can analyze the opportunity in depth over at the Quantcha Options Search Engine.
MUR was recently trading at $31.70 and has an implied volatility of 66.40% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for MUR expiring on 15-Jul-2022, there is a 34.22% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $26.79-$31.72 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 31.28%.
Big -7.26% Change: After closing the last trading session at $34.18, MURPHY OIL opened today at $31.95 and has reached a low of $31.27.
Trade approach: A movement as big as -7.26% is a significantly bearish indicator, so this trade is designed to be profitable if MUR maintains its current direction and does not revert back to pricing on the bullish side of $31.70 on 15-Jul-2022. If possible, the trade has been padded such that slight movement against the trade would still return a profit.
Upside potential: Using this bearish strategy, the trade would be profitable if MURPHY OIL closes at or below $31.95 on 15-Jul-2022. Based on our risk-neutral analysis, there is a 51.70% likelihood of this return.
Downside risk: As with any options trade, there is a substantial downside risk where you may lose most or all of your investment.
To analyze this trade in depth, please visit the Quantcha Options Search Engine.