Quantchabot has detected a promising Bear Call Spread trade opportunity for MOSAIC (MOS) for the 5-Aug-2022 expiration period. You can analyze the opportunity in depth over at the Quantcha Options Search Engine.
MOS was recently trading at $46.15 and has an implied volatility of 58.34% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for MOS expiring on 5-Aug-2022, there is a 34.18% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $37.76-$46.20 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 36.56%.
Big -7.76% Change: After closing the last trading session at $50.03, MOSAIC opened today at $50.06 and has reached a low of $46.10.
Trade approach: A movement as big as -7.76% is a significantly bearish indicator, so this trade is designed to be profitable if MOS maintains its current direction and does not revert back to pricing on the bullish side of $46.15 on 5-Aug-2022. If possible, the trade has been padded such that slight movement against the trade would still return a profit.
Upside potential: Using this bearish strategy, the trade would be profitable if MOSAIC closes at or below $46.41 on 5-Aug-2022. Based on our risk-neutral analysis, there is a 50.88% likelihood of this return.
Downside risk: As with any options trade, there is a substantial downside risk where you may lose most or all of your investment.
To analyze this trade in depth, please visit the Quantcha Options Search Engine.