Big Loser Alert: Trading today’s -10.2% move in NOVAVAX $NVAX

Quantchabot has detected a promising Bear Call Spread trade opportunity for NOVAVAX (NVAX) for the 28-Oct-2022 expiration period. You can analyze the opportunity in depth over at the Quantcha Options Search Engine.

NVAX was recently trading at $23.23 and has an implied volatility of 120.72% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for NVAX expiring on 28-Oct-2022, there is a 34.19% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $15.88-$23.29 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 20.57%.

Big -10.20% Change: After closing the last trading session at $25.87, NOVAVAX opened today at $24.63 and has reached a low of $23.20.

Trade approach: A movement as big as -10.20% is a significantly bearish indicator, so this trade is designed to be profitable if NVAX maintains its current direction and does not revert back to pricing on the bullish side of $23.23 on 28-Oct-2022. If possible, the trade has been padded such that slight movement against the trade would still return a profit.

Upside potential: Using this bearish strategy, the trade would be profitable if NOVAVAX closes at or below $23.33 on 28-Oct-2022. Based on our risk-neutral analysis, there is a 50.17% likelihood of this return.

Downside risk: As with any options trade, there is a substantial downside risk where you may lose most or all of your investment.

To analyze this trade in depth, please visit the Quantcha Options Search Engine.