Quantchabot has detected a promising Bear Call Spread trade opportunity for CANADIAN NATURAL (CNQ) for the 21-Apr-2023 expiration period. You can analyze the opportunity in depth over at the Quantcha Options Search Engine.
CNQ was recently trading at $49.60 and has an implied volatility of 39.91% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for CNQ expiring on 21-Apr-2023, there is a 34.19% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $43.26-$49.18 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 26.69%.
Big -7.42% Change: After closing the last trading session at $53.58, CANADIAN NATURAL opened today at $51.45 and has reached a low of $49.30.
Trade approach: A movement as big as -7.42% is a significantly bearish indicator, so this trade is designed to be profitable if CNQ maintains its current direction and does not revert back to pricing on the bullish side of $49.60 on 21-Apr-2023. If possible, the trade has been padded such that slight movement against the trade would still return a profit.
Upside potential: Using this bearish strategy, the trade would be profitable if CANADIAN NATURAL closes at or below $49.25 on 21-Apr-2023. Based on our risk-neutral analysis, there is a 50.47% likelihood of this return.
Downside risk: As with any options trade, there is a substantial downside risk where you may lose most or all of your investment.
To analyze this trade in depth, please visit the Quantcha Options Search Engine.
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