Quantchabot has detected a promising Bear Call Spread trade opportunity for UBS GROUP AG (UBS) for the 21-Apr-2023 expiration period. You can analyze the opportunity in depth over at the Quantcha Options Search Engine.
UBS was recently trading at $18.44 and has an implied volatility of 57.33% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for UBS expiring on 21-Apr-2023, there is a 34.19% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $15.26-$18.35 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 36.92%.
Big -7.75% Change: After closing the last trading session at $19.99, UBS GROUP AG opened today at $18.15 and has reached a low of $18.12.
Trade approach: A movement as big as -7.75% is a significantly bearish indicator, so this trade is designed to be profitable if UBS maintains its current direction and does not revert back to pricing on the bullish side of $18.44 on 21-Apr-2023. If possible, the trade has been padded such that slight movement against the trade would still return a profit.
Upside potential: Using this bearish strategy, the trade would be profitable if UBS GROUP AG closes at or below $18.40 on 21-Apr-2023. Based on our risk-neutral analysis, there is a 50.64% likelihood of this return.
Downside risk: As with any options trade, there is a substantial downside risk where you may lose most or all of your investment.
To analyze this trade in depth, please visit the Quantcha Options Search Engine.
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.