Quantchabot has detected a promising Bear Call Spread trade opportunity for MOSAIC (MOS) for the 23-Jun-2023 expiration period. You can analyze the opportunity in depth over at the Quantcha Options Search Engine.
MOS was recently trading at $38.91 and has an implied volatility of 43.57% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for MOS expiring on 23-Jun-2023, there is a 34.18% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $33.13-$38.97 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 34.00%.
Big -9.24% Change: After closing the last trading session at $42.87, MOSAIC opened today at $42.08 and has reached a low of $38.68.
Trade approach: A movement as big as -9.24% is a significantly bearish indicator, so this trade is designed to be profitable if MOS maintains its current direction and does not revert back to pricing on the bullish side of $38.91 on 23-Jun-2023. If possible, the trade has been padded such that slight movement against the trade would still return a profit.
Upside potential: Using this bearish strategy, the trade would be profitable if MOSAIC closes at or below $39.00 on 23-Jun-2023. Based on our risk-neutral analysis, there is a 50.20% likelihood of this return.
Downside risk: As with any options trade, there is a substantial downside risk where you may lose most or all of your investment.
To analyze this trade in depth, please visit the Quantcha Options Search Engine.
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