Quantchabot has detected a promising Synthetic Long Stock trade opportunity for ARBOR REALTY TRUST (ABR) for the 17-Jan-2025 expiration period. You can analyze the opportunity in depth over at the Quantcha Options Search Engine.
ABR was recently trading at $15.79 and has an implied volatility of 33.24% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for ABR expiring on 17-Jan-2025, there is a 68.28% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $11.53-$25.27 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 83.74%.
Upside potential: This synthetic long position offers the same potential benefits and liabilities as a long stock position, but at a discount due to the significant premium at-the-money puts are trading at over calls. In this case, the long call position is opened at a strike of $15.00, which is already $0.79 in the money. An out-of-the-money put at the same strike is sold to finance the call, resulting in a net credit of $0.90 per share. The final position can be considered as having a discount of $1.69 per share over the underlying price of $15.79 for a 10.70% total.
Downside risk: This discount is generally a sign of the stock facing considerable short pressure, and may indicate that the stock has become hard to borrow. However, if you have a long view of the underlying over this period, it could be a good opportunity to benefit from the upside at a major discount.
To analyze this trade in depth, please visit the Quantcha Options Search Engine.