Quantchabot has detected a promising Bear Put Spread trade opportunity for ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND (TLT) for the 29-Sep-2023 expiration period. You can analyze the opportunity in depth over at the Quantcha Options Search Engine.
TLT was recently trading at $93.52 and has an implied volatility of 16.03% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for TLT expiring on 29-Sep-2023, there is a 30.60% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $90.08-$93.52 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 97.96%.
Trending on StockTwits: StockTwits® is a financial communications platform for the financial and investing community. On their site, ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND was recently trending, indicating that breaking news and/or market activity has significantly impacted sentiment toward the stock. This movement can be interpretted as a sign of more near-term price movement for the underlying.
Trade approach: The recent sentiment change in TLT on StockTwits appears to be significantly negative, indicating that the stock is likely to follow in that direction for investors trading on sentiment. As a result, a bearish strategy could prove effective if the sentiment ultimately turns out to drive trading.
Upside potential: Using this bearish strategy, the trade would be profitable if ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND closed at or below $93.52 on 29-Sep-2023. Based on our analysis, there is a 46.39% likelihood of this return.
Downside risk: As with any options trade, there is a substantial downside risk where you may lose most or all of your investment.
To analyze this trade in depth, please visit the Quantcha Options Search Engine.