Quantchabot has detected a promising Bear Call Spread trade opportunity for NORTHROP GRUMMAN (NOC) for the 20-Oct-2023 expiration period. You can analyze the opportunity in depth over at the Quantcha Options Search Engine.
NOC was recently trading at $417.58 and has an implied volatility of 18.95% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for NOC expiring on 20-Oct-2023, there is a 34.19% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $394.72-$420.17 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 35.03%.
52 week low: NORTHROP GRUMMAN recently reached a new 52-week low at $417.58. NOC had traded in the range $421.73-$556.27 over the past year.
Trade approach: Reaching a new 52-week low is a bearish indicator, so this trade is designed to be profitable if NOC maintains its current direction and does not revert back to pricing on the bullish side of $417.58 on 20-Oct-2023. If possible, the trade has been padded such that slight movement against the trade would still return a profit.
Upside potential: Using this bearish strategy, the trade would be profitable if NORTHROP GRUMMAN closes at or below $420.60 on 20-Oct-2023. Based on our risk-neutral analysis, there is a 50.68% likelihood of this return.
Downside risk: As with any options trade, there is a substantial downside risk where you may lose most or all of your investment.
To analyze this trade in depth, please visit the Quantcha Options Search Engine.