Quantchabot has detected a promising Bull Call Spread trade opportunity for MURPHY USA INC (MUSA) for the 20-Oct-2023 expiration period. You can analyze the opportunity in depth over at the Quantcha Options Search Engine.
MUSA was recently trading at $368.55 and has an implied volatility of 25.90% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for MUSA expiring on 20-Oct-2023, there is a 34.68% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $368.76-$378.46 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 25.32%.
52 week high: MURPHY USA INC recently reached a new 52-week high at $370.52. MUSA had traded in the range $231.65-$369.31 over the past year.
Trade approach: Reaching a new 52-week high is a bullish indicator, so this trade is designed to be profitable if MUSA maintains its current direction and does not revert back to pricing on the bearish side of $368.55 on 20-Oct-2023. If possible, the trade has been padded such that slight movement against the trade would still return a profit.
Upside potential: Using this bullish strategy, the trade would be profitable if MURPHY USA INC closes at or above $367.90 on 20-Oct-2023. Based on our risk-neutral analysis, there is a 53.64% likelihood of this return.
Downside risk: As with any options trade, there is a substantial downside risk where you may lose most or all of your investment.
To analyze this trade in depth, please visit the Quantcha Options Search Engine.