Quantchabot has detected a promising Bear Put Spread trade opportunity for ULTRAGENYX PHARMACEUTICAL INC. (RARE) for the 19-Jan-2024 expiration period. You can analyze the opportunity in depth over at the Quantcha Options Search Engine.
RARE was recently trading at $31.73 and has an implied volatility of 64.72% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for RARE expiring on 19-Jan-2024, there is a 32.36% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $23.23-$31.73 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 52.67%.
Trending on StockTwits: StockTwits® is a financial communications platform for the financial and investing community. On their site, ULTRAGENYX PHARMACEUTICAL INC. was recently trending, indicating that breaking news and/or market activity has significantly impacted sentiment toward the stock. This movement can be interpretted as a sign of more near-term price movement for the underlying.
Trade approach: The recent sentiment change in RARE on StockTwits appears to be moderately negative, indicating that the stock is likely to follow in that direction for investors trading on sentiment. As a result, a bearish strategy could prove effective if the sentiment ultimately turns out to drive trading.
Upside potential: Using this bearish strategy, the trade would be profitable if ULTRAGENYX PHARMACEUTICAL INC. closed at or below $31.85 on 19-Jan-2024. Based on our analysis, there is a 48.67% likelihood of this return.
Downside risk: As with any options trade, there is a substantial downside risk where you may lose most or all of your investment.
To analyze this trade in depth, please visit the Quantcha Options Search Engine.