Quantchabot has detected a promising Bear Call Spread trade opportunity for AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC. C (AAL) for the 15-Dec-2023 expiration period. You can analyze the opportunity in depth over at the Quantcha Options Search Engine.
AAL was recently trading at $11.10 and has an implied volatility of 44.74% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for AAL expiring on 15-Dec-2023, there is a 34.17% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $9.39-$11.19 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 32.81%.
52 week low: AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC. C recently reached a new 52-week low at $11.06. AAL had traded in the range $11.22-$19.08 over the past year.
Trade approach: Reaching a new 52-week low is a bearish indicator, so this trade is designed to be profitable if AAL maintains its current direction and does not revert back to pricing on the bullish side of $11.10 on 15-Dec-2023. If possible, the trade has been padded such that slight movement against the trade would still return a profit.
Upside potential: Using this bearish strategy, the trade would be profitable if AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC. C closes at or below $11.24 on 15-Dec-2023. Based on our risk-neutral analysis, there is a 50.93% likelihood of this return.
Downside risk: As with any options trade, there is a substantial downside risk where you may lose most or all of your investment.
To analyze this trade in depth, please visit the Quantcha Options Search Engine.