Quantchabot has detected a new Short Risk Reversal trade opportunity for NATURAL GROCERS (NGVC) for the 18-Jul-2025 expiration period. You can analyze the opportunity in depth over at the Quantcha Options Search Engine.
NGVC was recently trading at $39.52 and has an implied volatility of 49.62% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for NGVC expiring on 18-Jul-2025, there is a 34.22% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $34.94-$39.63 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 10.87%.
Big -7.01% Change: After closing the last trading session at $42.50, NATURAL GROCERS opened today at $42.46 and has reached a low of $38.96.
Trade approach: A movement as big as -7.01% is a significantly bearish indicator, so this trade is designed to be profitable if NGVC maintains its current direction and does not revert back to pricing on the bullish side of $39.52 on 18-Jul-2025. If possible, the trade has been padded such that slight movement against the trade would still return a profit.
Upside potential: Using this bearish strategy, the trade would be profitable if NATURAL GROCERS closes at or below $40.85 on 18-Jul-2025. Based on our risk-neutral analysis, there is a 59.54% likelihood of this return.
Downside risk: As with any options trade, there is a substantial downside risk where you may lose most or all of your investment.
To analyze this trade in depth, please visit the Quantcha Options Search Engine.
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